Thursday, January 30, 2020

How serious is the Wuhan virus

 also has China’s only level 4 biosafety lab.
“Within the framework of the Sino-French Cooperation Agreement on Emerging Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, signed in October 2004, China constructed its first BSL-4 laboratory in 2015 in Wuhan. “
But, I’m sure that had nothing to do with this. Right?
China is a very strange mix of backwards and futuristic.
Washing hands is not common knowledge. People still spit on the ground-even indoors. Coughing or sneezing without covering their mouths is also very common. There is a lack of basic education regarding what causes and transmits disease-a lot of mythology and bullshit being spouted. Yet this is a world leader in AI, robotics, blockchain, and almost any other high technology field imaginable, and will no doubt eventually be the biggest economic power in the world.
This disease is fairly serious, for a few reasons.
  1. The disease can be passed from human to human.
  2. It has an incubation period of almost two weeks.
  3. The disease can be passed on by those without symptoms-and it’s spreading very quickly.
  4. While having a much lower mortality rate compared to MERS or SARS, just .1–2% or so, it’s still killing people off. Most are older and many have preexisting conditions, but a life is a life.
  5. This is right around the time of the biggest human migration in history-a billion or so people all going back home and then returning. It’s the worst possible timing.
  6. The population density of China is very high, probably three or four times what it should be.
  7. Viruses mutate, and with it spreading this quickly, if a more virulent strain with a 30–35% mortality rate like MERS comes about…this will get very messy.
The government, understandably, is responding very actively.
We had to fill out forms when landing from Malaysia that we hadn’t been to Wuhan (武汉) in the past two weeks, nor did we have any symptoms. People who had been to Wuhan on the plane were taken for further medical examination.
Right now, all of Wuhan and most cities in Hubei (湖北)province are roadblocked and quarantined-a total of about 50 million people, or roughly the total population of England cannot depart their city. My wife’s friend is in Wuhan, and she told my wife that they are “等死“-waiting to die. While this is a tad dramatic, I think it’s not uncommon of a feeling.
Those spreading rumors about the disease on the internet can get 3–7 years in jail.
Our temperatures are taken every time we enter our community.
It’s a ghost town-several thousand people live here, and almost no one to be seen.
Right now, wearing a mask is mandatory in public places here in Guangdong province.
However, they are sold out across the country, and many people are improvising:
All schools and training centers cannot reopen until later in February.
All restaurants in the country are closed-or at least the bigger ones.
All movies in theaters in the country have been cancelled-though they did give free downloads on Tencent Movies for those at home to make up for it.
This situation is evolving hour by hour and day by day. As of right now, it looks to be serious, and the government regulations are equally so. I have no doubt that they will win the fight, but the total cost remains to be seen.

No comments: